Background information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom%E2%80%93United_States_free_trade_agreement

Market resolves according to the date the agreement is effective, not the date it is signed. I'm expecting that if the agreement ever gets signed, the above page will look a bit more like this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93United_Kingdom_Free_Trade_Agreement, in which case I will take the date next to the "effective" field.

If the UK and the US enter into a multilateral FTA that includes other countries, that triggers resolution. If the UK and US enter into a trade agreement that falls short of an FTA, that does not trigger resolution.

Free trade agreements have a pretty universal definition so I don't anticipate any complications in resolution. I will bet in this market.

Feel free to add later years and/or bet on the "other" option. Only answers of the form of a single year will be accepted.

Close date extends as necessary.

• Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided an update on how an agreement will be assessed to determine if it qualifies as a free trade agreement (FTA) for market resolution:

  • The creator will use their best judgement in cases of ambiguity regarding whether an agreement constitutes a full FTA. This is a shift from the initial expectation that FTAs had a "universal definition".

  • Sources for information will include mainstream media and Wikipedia.

  • The creator will look for an agreement to be officially termed a "free trade agreement".

  • Important clarification: Even if an agreement is officially designated as a "free trade agreement", the creator might not resolve the market based on that agreement if there is significant commentary from economists suggesting it is not a real or comprehensive FTA. This means such an agreement might not be considered the qualifying event this market is looking for, and the market would continue.

• Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Building on the 2025-05-08 update regarding the assessment of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs):

  • The creator may deem an agreement insufficient to resolve the market if, in their judgment, it is not sufficiently broad and primarily focuses on reducing tariffs for a limited range of products.

  • This is an example of how the creator will use their best judgement to determine if an agreement, even if officially termed an FTA, qualifies as a real or comprehensive FTA for the purposes of this market. This assessment will be informed by sources like mainstream media and expert commentary.

• Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has further specified how the 'officially termed' status of an agreement as a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by the involved governments will be assessed:

  • The creator will primarily examine official documents and communications from the UK and US governments (e.g., White House or gov.uk announcements, USTR.gov fact sheets).

  • Specific attention will be paid to whether these official government sources explicitly use the words 'free', 'agreement', or 'FTA' when describing the deal.

  • The presence of the agreement on official lists of FTAs maintained by relevant government bodies (e.g., the USTR's list of Free Trade Agreements) will be a key piece of evidence.