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MANIFOLD
Which countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
4
แน€1kแน€910
2030
87%
Costa Rica
69%
Uruguay
42%
Philippines
37%
Indonesia
31%
Ecuador
20%
Ukraine
20%
South Korea
20%
Thailand
18%
China
18%
Taiwan

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a trade agreement with 12 parties as of January 2025, mostly in the Pacific. It began as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was signed but never entered into force as the United States withdrew in 2017. The remaining 11 signatories instead formed the CPTPP, and were joined in 2024 by the United Kingdom. Various other countries have formally applied to join the agreement or expressed interest; negotiations are currently open with Costa Rica, beginning on 29 November 2024.

An answer to this market will resolve YES if that country accedes to the agreement (i.e. the agreement comes into force for it) on or before 31 December 2029. Note that the accession protocol does not have to come into force between the applicant and all other members for the country to accede to the agreement, just at least half the remaining members (e.g. the United Kingdom had the agreement come into force for nine countries on 15 December 2024, but for Australia it came into force on 24 December).

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