
Context: On April 30, 2025, Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar claimed that Pakistan has "credible intelligence" indicating India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24-36 hours, citing the recent Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir as a pretext. This claim follows heightened tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors after the April 22, 2025, militant attack that killed 26 people, mostly Indian tourists, in Kashmir. India has accused Pakistan of supporting the attack, while Pakistan denies involvement and has called for a neutral investigation. Both nations have taken retaliatory measures, including India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines. Indian media and political rhetoric have leaned toward military action, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowing to pursue the perpetrators "to the ends of the earth."
Options:
- Yes: India launches a military operation (e.g., airstrikes, surgical strikes, or ground incursion) in Pakistan by May 31, 2025.
- No: India does not launch a military operation in Pakistan by May 31, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as "Yes" if credible reports (e.g., from Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, or other major international outlets) confirm that India has conducted a military operation inside Pakistan’s territory (including Pakistan-administered Kashmir) by 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2025. Operations limited to the Line of Control (LoC) skirmishes or exchanges of fire without crossing into Pakistani territory will not count. The question will resolve as "No" if no such operation is confirmed by the deadline.
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@NeoMalthusian Pakistan’ Punjab region and Pakistan administered Kashmir: https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl
Also from WSJ:
> Pakistan’s army spokesman, Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, said that missiles hit three locations, including Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/india-retaliates-for-attack-in-kashmir-it-blames-on-pakistan-3aea5ac4
Pakistan tests Abdali Ballistic Missile: https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/pakistans-missile-test-blatant-act-of-provocation-sources/amp_articleshow/120853071.cms
Secretary Rubio calls Indian and Pakistani officials to defuse tensions: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5277344-marco-rubio-india-pakistan-conflict/amp/