"Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends carrying out military action against Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours on the pretext of baseless and concocted allegations of involvement in the Pahalgam incident" - Government of Pakistan

All answers resolve based on whether it is the month of May or the date described in the answer in UTC+5 (Pakistan local time) when the event described occurs, if it occurs

Answers will N/A liberally if I cannot find reliable sources to resolve

• Update 2025-04-29 (PST): - Military action includes airstrikes by India against Pakistan. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is inclined to resolve as N/A outcomes or answer options if the described event or condition was already true or occurring before this market or the relevant answer was created.

  claude please stop adding useless stuff to this description. if it is useful you can add things

• Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Pakistan retaliates with missile strikes on Indian military installations':

  • The creator has indicated this specific answer will resolve YES.

  • This resolution decision is based on evidence dated May 10, 2025, which includes:

  • Confirmation from an Indian government source (e.g., Ministry of External Affairs transcript) detailing missile attacks on Indian military installations.

  • Associated Pakistani claims of responsibility for such strikes.

  • The creator's intent to resolve based on this May 10, 2025 event indicates it is considered for resolution and not automatically N/A'd under the 'already true or occurring' clause (Update 2025-05-08).

• Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator plans to resolve any remaining open answers as NO, unless traders provide evidence that the described event occurred.

  • This modifies the previous "N/A liberally" clause: situations where the creator cannot find reliable sources for an event (and traders do not provide them) are now expected to resolve NO instead of N/A.

• Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Regarding a potential N/A resolution for an answer option related to a water treaty (due to an event in April where India allegedly released water from a dam, cutting off water to Pakistan):

  • The creator has indicated that, after further research, they agree this April event did not result in cutting off water as was initially suggested.

  • Consequently, this specific April event, as now understood by the creator, is not considered a basis for resolving the 'water treaty' answer option as N/A under the 'already true or occurring' clause (from Update 2025-05-08).

  • The resolution of this answer option will proceed according to other applicable market rules.