"Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends carrying out military action against Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours on the pretext of baseless and concocted allegations of involvement in the Pahalgam incident" - Government of Pakistan
All answers resolve based on whether it is the month of May or the date described in the answer in UTC+5 (Pakistan local time) when the event described occurs, if it occurs
Answers will N/A liberally if I cannot find reliable sources to resolve
Update 2025-04-29 (PST): - Military action includes airstrikes by India against Pakistan. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is inclined to resolve as N/A outcomes or answer options if the described event or condition was already true or occurring before this market or the relevant answer was created.
claude please stop adding useless stuff to this description. if it is useful you can add things
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer 'Pakistan retaliates with missile strikes on Indian military installations':
The creator has indicated this specific answer will resolve YES.
This resolution decision is based on evidence dated May 10, 2025, which includes:
Confirmation from an Indian government source (e.g., Ministry of External Affairs transcript) detailing missile attacks on Indian military installations.
Associated Pakistani claims of responsibility for such strikes.
The creator's intent to resolve based on this May 10, 2025 event indicates it is considered for resolution and not automatically N/A'd under the 'already true or occurring' clause (Update 2025-05-08).
Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator plans to resolve any remaining open answers as NO, unless traders provide evidence that the described event occurred.
This modifies the previous "N/A liberally" clause: situations where the creator cannot find reliable sources for an event (and traders do not provide them) are now expected to resolve NO instead of N/A.
Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Regarding a potential N/A resolution for an answer option related to a water treaty (due to an event in April where India allegedly released water from a dam, cutting off water to Pakistan):
The creator has indicated that, after further research, they agree this April event did not result in cutting off water as was initially suggested.
Consequently, this specific April event, as now understood by the creator, is not considered a basis for resolving the 'water treaty' answer option as N/A under the 'already true or occurring' clause (from Update 2025-05-08).
The resolution of this answer option will proceed according to other applicable market rules.
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@traders Planning to resolve everything NO, if you have evidence anything left open occurred please tell me now
I might N/A the water treaty one as per a comment below indicating India released water from a dam in April, cutting off water to an area of Pakistan
@SaviorofPlant I don’t see an argument for a causal connection there. Releasing water from a dam upriver makes more water go downstream, not less. As far as we know, the unrelated body of water seen drying up is related to drought conditions Pakistan is already experiencing.
@SaviorofPlant https://x.com/faiqahmedd/status/1920992838650568911
This tweet suggests missiles were fired and intercepted above Karachi. Can't find any sources to verify but it's possible this has already happened.
Appears so:
https://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/39486/Transcript_of_Special_briefing_on_OPERATION_SINDOOR_May_10_2025
"However, limited damage was sustained to equipment and personnel at Indian Air Force stations at Udhampur, Pathankot, Adampur and Bhuj. There were also several high-speed missile attacks noticed subsequently after 0140 hours in the night at several air bases in Punjab."
Pakistan also claims to have hit the bases, resolving YES
@SaviorofPlant Why resolved YES? So far Pakistan says ~50 casualties within Pakistan, India says ~15 within India.
@TheAllMemeingEye
from India: https://www.fortuneindia.com/business-news/india-remains-open-to-non-escalation-if-pakistan-assures-the-same-foreign-secy-vikram-misry-on-day-2-of-operation-sindoor/122896
"According to official statements, 16 civilians have been killed—among them five children and three women—and 59 others injured due to retaliatory fire impacting civilian areas."
from Pakistan: https://www.reuters.com/world/india-strikes-pakistan-with-missiles-pakistan-says-it-will-retaliate-2025-05-06/
"Pakistan's army says the death toll from India's strikes has risen to 31
An army spokesman said a further 46 people were injured."
These are both just articles quoting government statements, but those statements can probably be tracked down with a bit of effort
@SaviorofPlant N/Aed as I am finding sources indicating Pakistan began retaliations around midnight IST, and this answer was added 3 hours later
@crowlsyong wasn't this already happening before this market was created? inclined to N/A if that's the case
@SaviorofPlant I think that India suspended a treaty, but has not prevented Pakistan from getting water by way of rerouting/filling reservoirs.
If you find information to the contrary, feel free to resolve N/A.
@crowlsyong Does this count?
"Following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 on 23 April 2025, local media in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, reported on 26 and 27 April that India had released water from the Uri Dam into the Jhelum River unannounced, resulting in flooding.[96][97] Additional reports indicated a sharp decline in water levels of the Chenab River in Sialkot, Pakistan, with satellite imagery showing significant drying of the riverbed."
@SaviorofPlant Multiple Indian sources reported strikes by Pakistan: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/12-dead-in-pakistan-shelling-across-loc-jammu-and-kashmirs-poonch-worst-hit/articleshow/120965432.cms Pakistani sources claim those were against military installations: https://tribune.com.pk/live-blog/43
This should resolve the general retaliation question while the more restrictive question about missile strikes probably needs more supporting information.
@SaviorofPlant Resolves YES. Strikes reported in Bahawalpur, Muridke, and Shakargarh https://www.nytimes.com/article/india-pakistan-kashmir-terrorism.html
@SaviorofPlant According to Wikipedia we are already over this number, but will wait to resolve as there is a lot of misinformation going around
@SaviorofPlant was it deliberate that this says airstrikes and the Pakistan option says missile strikes?
@SaviorofPlant okay (I would have waited a little but am confident this will resolve if it's shown there were no airstrikes)