Mpox declared PHEIC again

The least eventful YES resolution possible, but a YES resolution nonetheless.

longer duration market on clade I monkeypox specifically

The monkeypox PHEIC mentioned in the description expired on 11 May 2023 (https://www.who.int/groups/monkeypox-ihr-emergency-committee). So, my trade assumes that a new PHEIC for monkeypox will be counted.

@NcyRocks can you confirm that this is an accurate interpretation?

Correct, thanks for pointing that out. I’ll amend the description

New deadly strain of mpox found in DRC could spread exponentially among humans

The new mpox strain (Clade Ib) is more deadly than the previous strain, with a fatality rate ~5%. But the new strain doesn't appear to be more infectious, it still requires close physical contact to spread, and is still primarily sexually transmitted like the previous variant. There are 7,851 suspected mpox cases in the DRC this year as of the end of May:

And here is the number of lab-test-confirmed cases by continent:

Global health in jeopardy
COVID still causing calamity
WHO may declare a new emergency
We must ensure the great reset, ultimately

@DismalScientist Buying no because if you assume .33 risk in 23 and 24 then you get about a 55% chance of yes

Related:

@egroj The market for 2030 should always trade way higher than OP, corresponding very roughly to the public health prob per year * 5 (more like 1-(1-p)^5)

@lu I agree, I think that the one for 2030 is still very low

"Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?"