Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?
51
282
1k
Dec 31
28%
chance

Other than the current polio, COVID-19 and monkeypox PHEICs.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Global health in jeopardy
COVID still causing calamity
WHO may declare a new emergency
We must ensure the great reset, ultimately

bought Ṁ100 of NO
predicts NO

@DismalScientist Buying no because if you assume .33 risk in 23 and 24 then you get about a 55% chance of yes

predicts YES

Related:

sold Ṁ10 of YES

@egroj The market for 2030 should always trade way higher than OP, corresponding very roughly to the public health prob per year * 5 (more like 1-(1-p)^5)

predicts YES

@lu I agree, I think that the one for 2030 is still very low

predicts NO

"Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?"

Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?