Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?
50
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แน10Kแน820
Dec 31
24%
chance
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Other than the current polio, COVID-19 and monkeypox PHEICs.
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@DismalScientist Buying no because if you assume .33 risk in 23 and 24 then you get about a 55% chance of yes
@egroj The market for 2030 should always trade way higher than OP, corresponding very roughly to the public health prob per year * 5 (more like 1-(1-p)^5)
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