Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?
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56
Ṁ10kDec 31
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Other than the current polio, COVID-19 and monkeypox PHEICs.
Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ25 YES from 28% to 30%
The new mpox strain (Clade Ib) is more deadly than the previous strain, with a fatality rate ~5%. But the new strain doesn't appear to be more infectious, it still requires close physical contact to spread, and is still primarily sexually transmitted like the previous variant. There are 7,851 suspected mpox cases in the DRC this year as of the end of May:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FihD2BhZKdo.png?alt=media&token=7eed4f63-85bd-494a-aec7-ca4497b65cf6)
And here is the number of lab-test-confirmed cases by continent:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fk-LnLgWqUJ.png?alt=media&token=b3910722-d4ae-4aaa-9bda-79b50b0dfe5c)
@DismalScientist Buying no because if you assume .33 risk in 23 and 24 then you get about a 55% chance of yes
@egroj The market for 2030 should always trade way higher than OP, corresponding very roughly to the public health prob per year * 5 (more like 1-(1-p)^5)
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