48. Will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency in 2023?
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For reference, the last three were monkeypox, COVID, and Ebola.
This is question #48 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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DismalScientist
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern Base rate is pretty high if this is what he means
JAAMis predicting NO at 34%
@DismalScientist regarding that, I think that these markets are undervalued:
YES shares
330
287
204
161
115
98
34
29
29
25
15
14
NO shares
770
146
136
90
60
46
29
27
18
16
15
