48. Will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency in 2023?
35%
chance

For reference, the last three were monkeypox, COVID, and Ebola.

This is question #48 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientist
egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 34%

@DismalScientist regarding that, I think that these markets are undervalued: