Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? (OLD MECHANISM)
16
820Ṁ407
Jun 23
7%Other
6%
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture
18%
Hodge conjecture
48%
Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness
5%
P versus NP problem
11%
Riemann hypothesis
5%
Yang–Mills existence and mass gap
As judged by the Clay Math Institute.
Math
Millennium Prize Problems
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
12% chance
Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
45% chance
Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027?
34% chance
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
50% chance
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
47% chance
Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?
47% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2040?
65% chance
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?
Sort by:

I've decided to close this market, since it uses Manifold's old market mechanism. It'll still resolve as normal. Let me know if you want me to reopen it.

If you want to trade on this question, see this new market with fixed payouts:

  1. Navier Stokes

  2. Birch Swinnerton-Dyer

  3. Hodge

  4. Yang-mills

  5. Riemann

  6. P vs NP

that is the order I think it will go

I made a multiple-choice version of this question now that we have that market type available:

"Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?"

Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Terence Tao gave an interesting talk on an approach to Navier-Stokes a few years ago which made me think this was somewhat tractable.

People are also trading

Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
-11% 1d12% chance
Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
45% chance
Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027?
-16% 1d34% chance
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
50% chance
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
47% chance
Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?
47% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2040?
+4% 1d65% chance
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules