If Biden wins in 2024, will he serve a full second term?
283
1.1K
2.2K
2029
73%
chance

Resolves NO if he dies, resigns, or is removed from office.

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sold Ṁ7 of NO

what clowns are buying NO here at this price? this is easily worth at least 90%

bought Ṁ250 of NO

This question will move heavily with who gets chosen as his running mate. If Kamala stays that means he's going to try to ride it out. If it's someone else, who actually polls reasonably well nationally?

predicts NO

@NickAllen it's kamala

predicts YES

The social security actuarial table gives the chance of surviving from 82 to 86 as 26,518/39,360 = 0.67 and biden's chances are probably better due to socioeconomic status.

predicts NO

@JonathanRay Does anyone his age have the same level of stress and demanding job? I think the physical demands of the presidency are gonna be much harder for Biden than the mental element. Presidents in their 40s age faster than their peers, at least in appearance, so I don’t understand the comparison to other 80 year old like it’s apples to apples.

bought Ṁ160 of YES

@BTE actuarial tables wildly overestimate death rates of congressmen, which is similar

predicts YES

@JonathanRay if anything being forced to stay active at that age is a net positive

predicts NO

@JonathanRay Well the unprecedented nature of the circumstances and the obvious deterioration of Biden physically over the last 3 years makes me skeptical but fair point.

predicts NO

@JonathanRay Biden's handlers might grow tired of playing make-believe that he isn't a vegetable though

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

On the social security actuarial table I calculate a (1-0.069226)*(1-0.076884)*(1-0.085452)*(1-0.095062) = 0.71 chance of surviving 4 years for a male starting at age 82. But previously I've realized the actuarial tables grossly overestimate death rates of officials because having your shit together enough to win a race is a pretty strong filter for being healthier than the average N-year-old. So I'm buying Yes at 66%

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@JonathanRay Empirically, congressmen have a per-year death rate of 38/23/535 = 0.3% since the year 2000. Compare this to the actuarial table for a male of the average age of congress (59.5) which is around 1%

predicts YES

@JonathanRay Congress was not as old as it is now for that entire period, women have much lower death rates than men, and US life expectancy was higher during that period than it is now

Actuarial average for congressional demographics over that period was probably closer to .8%

@JonathanRay Death is not the only thing that can prevent a full second term #Badakathcare

bought Ṁ20 of NO

N/A if he doesn't win, I assume?

@Jacknaut Correct.

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