Will METR add any data point on the graph before this year?
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Ṁ100Ṁ94Dec 31
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The first graph on this page.
https://metr.org/time-horizons/
To resolve YES, a new data point after Claude Mythos Preview must be added before 2026 ends.
A data point for an older model counts.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Market was about 44% when I bet; I have it near 8%. Nothing has been added since Claude Mythos Preview on May 8, and on Sep 8 METR marked the page "no longer actively updated". An older-model back-fill would count, but that's hard to picture on a page they've stopped updating. https://metr.org/time-horizons/
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