Will there be a conflict between 3 or more states in the middle east before 2025?
Dec 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any conflict involving three or more recognized states in the Middle East occurs before the end of the day on December 31, 2024, Eastern Time. For the purpose of this market, a "conflict" is defined as an active disagreement or clash, specifically involving military actions or explicit diplomatic disputes that are publicly acknowledged and reported by major global news outlets, such as BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, or Reuters. A "state" refers to a sovereign state. This includes but is not limited to Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq.

The conflict must be independently confirmed and reported by at least two of the aforementioned news outlets for the market to resolve to "Yes". If two or fewer nation states are involved in a conflict, or if no such conflict occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve to "No".

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Southern Lebanon: BBC sees air strike destruction in deserted towns https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68927288

Conceding that most folks don’t consider Hezbollah representative enough to count as the Lebanese state, it’s strange for us to have a lower percent now than before the Iran escalation.

@Panfilo if most folks don't know how the Lebanese political system is structured or when/how the last war with Israel ended, then I think what most folks consider doesn't have all that much weight.

bought Ṁ400 YES

I think @NathanpmYoung will judge Israel + Lebanon + Iran as three sovereign states in conflict, he's just been AFK for 10 days. Hezbollah are an official political party of Lebanon, and Israel has struck an Iranian embassy.

@Panfilo Sounds right. Do we generally consider hezbollah to represent lebanon?

@NathanpmYoung The military wing and political wing of hezbollah are seperate. It's like Sinn Fein and the IRA.

@MaePole @NathanpmYoung This maybe used to be true but the current arrangement is like if the IRA “went legit” while also maintaining militancy.

bought Ṁ200 NO

@NathanpmYoung Lebanon has its own military, the Lebanese Armed Forces, who are very deliberately staying out of conflict with Israel. Hezbollah are major power players inside Lebanon, they are not the state of Lebanon and are not recognized as such by anyone, and do not even claim to be. The representatives of Hezbollah hold 15 out of 128 seats in the Lebanese Parliament. I don't think Hezbollah are a 'sovereign state' per the criteria.

Sounds like they aren't a state.

sold Ṁ102 YES

@NathanpmYoung If the Green Party had its own military and also a sizeable minority of congress, would fighting that military count as a conflict with the US?

I don't think it would count as fighting the recognised state of the US.

@SemioticRivalry Hizbullah is the strongest political force in Lebanon. Given that the country's Parliament is divided by religion, rather than saying they have 15/128 seats, it is more accurate to say they have 15/27 of the Shia seats they're allowed to contest - a majority. They have allies across several religious groups.

Furthermore, the Lebanese state is at war with Israel; there has never been any point where that hasn't been true. Lebanon invaded Israel the day after Israel declared independence, and the was was never ended by armistice or peace.

I can't get into detail right now, but it's very reasonable to claim that the Lebanese state, in doing nothing at all to prevent Hizbullah (its most prominent political force) from attacking its war enemy, is engaged in the war.

If I read “active disagreement or clash, specifically involving military actions or explicit diplomatic disputes” it sounds like it’d be sufficient if it was “active disagreement involving explicit diplomatic disputes” — is that right? What is sufficiently material to count as “dispute”? Or does this require military action / violence?

is that three states located anywhere or three middle eastern states? for example israel + egypt +


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