WIll there be a civil war in the UK before 2025? | Manifold

WIll there be a civil war in the UK before 2025?

Plus

149

Ṁ46k

Jan 2

0.8%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

1000 combat deaths between two parties subject to common political jurisdiction at the start, with at least 5% of the deaths on each side.

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1,000

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3.00

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As long as they keep a stiff upper lip throughout it.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

Haha! I dunno, Elon Musk is usually such a font of analytic wisdom on international politics!

How about the definition now?

I wouldn't have bought YES with this description :( better to change the title and/or make a new question than to change resolution criteria on an existing one, imo

I tipped you 100M if anyone else feels hard done by, comment here and I'll tip.

400 arrests so far: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cw5yyynpwnzt

Arg damn. I bet based on the title assuming the description would match and then it didn't. Mostly on me for not reading the description, but also a little bit on the market creator I think.

Have changed the description and am happy to refund anyone who bet before then

Title is sensationalized, 100 deaths is not equivalent to a civil war

How about now?

bought Ṁ50 YES

If we're defining "civil war" that loosely then sure, I'll buy "yes" at 3%

bought Ṁ50 YES

On the arrests metric, the Guardian is reporting 250 this weekend

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/05/first-edition-far-right-violence-uk

bought Ṁ5 YES at 7%

reposted

I think that Civil War in the UK is very unlikely.

your definition does not match the title. @NathanpmYoung

bought Ṁ100 YES

Yea but 1,000 arrests and 100 deaths is like Chicago on a weekend.

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