Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
Sorry, for the remake, I wrote it poorly yesterday.
#️ Politics
#Law & Order
#️‍ LGBTQIA+
#SCOTUS
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Yo that's not how the Court works, man. There's got to be an actual case they hear, they don't just do stuff. And there's no case pending right now that would overturn Obergefell. The chance here is basically 0%.

@MattP Yeah no cases until next October

@pc123 I mean other than the ones scheduled for this term.

I don't think there's enough time for such a case to get to the supreme court and be resolved by end of year.
I don't have the liquid cash to spend on this cuz I'm a bad trader, but I'm a fairly okay predictor on metaculus (ahh, the failings of prediction markets vs just prediction tracking, hiding that I am okay at figuring out what predictions to parrot but terrible at getting there first and prone to large bad trades.) but I think this is 90% probability by voting day 2024.
Hedge. 100% of my proceeds will go directly to LGBTQ charities if this market resolves yes.

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