Will North Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2023?
40
431
430
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
NO

This is a duplicate of another question but only considering Northern Gaza.

Gaza is currently, in a "de facto" sense, governed by Hamas. The organization's foreign policy has led to blockades by all neighboring countries. Given this situation as my baseline perspective, I intend to evaluate the market based on Israel meeting most of the criteria in the list below by the end of the year, or other indications that would lead a reasonable person to infer that Israel as complete control over the territory. I will employ my own judgment, supplemented by input from other stakeholders, in cases where there is ambiguity.

This list was added here to elucidate some people who were arguing that israel already had control of Gaza at the begining of the conflict. It as generated lots of controversy and apprehension in the betters. It serves as a guide and not as a checkbox I will be strictly following at resolution time. if there is still something I should further clarify please add some more comments. I am trying to go by some sort of common sense definition of political (not only military) control, including being able to defend and provide for the population in an organized and CONTROLLED faction.

"De Facto" Control Over a Territory implies:

1) Governance and Legal Systems: The ability to make and enforce laws [while allowing citizen participation in decision-making processes (this is optional)].

2) Security and Border Management: Ensuring internal safety and defending against external threats, while regulating who comes in and out of the territory.

3) Public Services and Utilities: Providing essential services like healthcare, education, and utilities such as water and electricity.

4) Economic Oversight: Control over financial systems, including tax collection and monetary policy.

5) International and Environmental Relations: Maintaining international relationships, disaster preparedness, and resource management.

Possibilities that have generated confusion and their resolution:
1) Distopic military dictatorship style control, resolves YES.
In this case criteria only the citizen participation section of criteria 1 would not be enforced.
2) Terror attacks by Hamaz are happening in a otherwhise controlled territory, resolves YES

In this case the internal safety section of criteria 2 would be lacking but everything else would still lead me to resolve it as YES.

3) Hamaz having a section of Gazan territory still in its control, resolves NO.
4) Population self governing (with or without IDF present), resolves NO.

5) Population in anarchy (with or without IDF present), resolves NO.

Also I should refer that at the end I will look for information on wikipedia, major news outlets and other similar reputable sources to make my decision. I will also take into consideration market discussions in case of possible ambiguities.

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predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung Please resolve

bought Ṁ100 of NO

To anyone who is betting YES on this based on maps put out by warmapper or ISW, please be cautious. These maps show the extent of Israeli operations. They do not show control. The IDF is still actively fighting in many of those areas that are shown as Israeli advances. Israel definitely doesn't govern that area. They are conducting clearing operations in them.

predicted YES

Why is this so high. Do you think the res criteraia are likely to be fulfilled?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

The pace of the Israeli advance in urban areas currently seems too slow for them to take control of Gaza City and surrounding areas by the end of the year. They are currently fighting in the less densely populated outskirts of Gaza City, and are still advancing at a slow rate of 0.15 km^2 per day or something like that. All of Gaza City is maybe ~ 30 km^2.

"YES" holders are betting on some kind of acceleration, and while I agree there's a decent chance of that, I don't think it's as high as 40%.

A slow and methodical advance should also minimize Israeli casualties, which could otherwise be quite substantial. Not only does it give Israeli forces some additional breathing space, but every day Gaza City remains under siege is another day that weakens the defenders. From a strictly military point of view, a slow advance is the correct choice.

predicted NO

@EgeErdil Am of the same opinion as you but I note increasing international pressure may force Israel to accelerate more than it wants to. Biden admin officials are already saying it is "on a timer".

predicted NO

@chatterchatty fwiw i've changed my mind about this a few days after writing the comment but was (and still am) unable to exit my position because the market is so thinly traded, so have to ride with it and see what happens

i thought the IDF would be at the level of progress it has made so far in, idk, start of december or something like that

predicted NO

@EgeErdil Something doesn't add up. It's been publicized in various places that "dozens", "hundreds" of specific Hamas commanders/soldiers had been killed, but that would still be a small fraction of the total manpower they had pre-war (roughly 30k). Assuming Hamas forces are concentrated in the north, you would need to neutralize several thousands to actually "control" a large area like North Gaza, notwithstanding the favorable (aboveground) territorial progress IDF has made.

predicted NO

@PlainBG I think you are mixing up commanders and soldiers. Most probably thousands of Hamas combatants have been killed. Comparatively less commanders have been killed.

predicted NO

@chatterchatty Earlier on IDF announced names of specific commanders and I believe they were a few dozen at most. Claims of overall Hamas casualties are harder to find. What I think is going on is Hamas has been avoiding direct combat for whatever reason, maybe they are in the south, or maybe they are laying a trap somewhere, or maybe they don't want to fight. For this question, what matters now is whether they will show up in the eastern unoccupied parts of North Gaza.

Edit: also it occurred to me given that few of the hostages have been found or rescued, it must mean not much of Hamas manpower has been degraded so far

predicted NO

You are probably looking at a specific strike. If I recall correctly, as of a few weeks ago the IDF claims to have killed thousands of Hamas combatants and 60+ commanders. Unfortunately it was on TV and I can't find a written source on a cursory web search.

@PlainBG

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Expecting some ambiguity yet can't help but betting on NO

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