Will Macron succeed in raising the retirement age?
23
41
450
resolved May 5
Resolved
YES

If it applies to more than 60% of workers

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ275
2Ṁ82
3Ṁ42
4Ṁ35
5Ṁ24
Sort by:
predicted YES

Any reason why you’re not resolving?

@NicoDelon Yeah this was bad from me.

This can resolve

How large are the carvouts to the passed bill? I sense it applies to more than 60% of workers, right?

bought Ṁ500 of YES

I think this has happened. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/24/business/pension-age-developed-countries-oecd/index.html "Under a new law, pushed through parliament without a vote last week, the retirement age for most French workers will be raised from 62 to 64."

@jack The law was enacted by parliament but hasn’t been promulgated (by Macron) yet. It may also be brought to the constitutional council (French Supreme Court).

@NicoDelon When will the Supreme court sit? I'm minded that if it's soon, then I'll wait, but if far away I'll probably resolve yes.

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung No idea.

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung Now I know. The council delivers its verdict on April 14.

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung It’s done.

bought Ṁ3,000 of YES

https://www.npr.org/2023/04/14/1170238212/macrons-pension-age-france "Macron's unpopular plan to raise France's retirement age is enacted into law"

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Politics are dirty,
Macron's plan is flirty.
Retirement age to soar,
French people will roar.

Also, IMO, this should not be resolved as yes if the bill only raises the number of years one has to work. (As such measure is already planned, the proposed bill will only make it faster.) It should really be a raise in the minimum age requirement (currently 62 for most).

@Floffinou So the bill was always about raising that minimum age?

Currently, the government announced that the 64 years will not apply for: police, firemen, army, nurse assistants, opera dancers, members of parliament, railway workers who started their job before January 2020, people born before 1968, people who start working before the age of 20, disabled people, people who suffered from a recognised work accident.

@Floffinou actually, most of those categories would still be affected: even if not retirement at 64, their retirement age would still be 2years later than without the bill.

Can you be more specific? Does this resolve as yes even if there are many exceptions? (E.g. the army, the parliament members, police, etc are already planned to be exempted, and there are discussions about people who have started working before the age of 21)

@Floffinou Hows my suggested one?

@NathanpmYoung ok thanks. I guess "workers" can be replaced by "workforce" here?

@Floffinou at the moment, the government is planning for it to be fully in effect in 2030. Does the 60% threshold apply to the 2023 workforce?

@NathanpmYoung currently the French workforce has about 30m people https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6453758?sommaire=6453776

@Floffinou New idea. What do you think is a fair description?

@NathanpmYoung how about "is going to affect the retirement age of at least 60% of the workforce from the time of resolution" ? (Depends if you want to exclude those who will not be affected because they are born in the 60s. Not sure how much these account for.)