Will EA noticeably split along Longtermist/neartermist lines before 2024?
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resolved Jan 3
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I don't like "neartermist" but there we are. I think this is ~ equivalent to splitting along x-risk/ global health lines.

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No sign of this occurring in the Dank EA Memes Facebook group, which is my ultimate EA community barometer, last I checked.

What is a "longtermist", actually? I'm familiar with the philosophical concept of "longtermism", meaning we should care about the far future, but I have yet to see someone recommend a "longtermist" charity that isn't primarily benefitting the near term.

@IsaacKing The word tends to mean things that are a higher priority under longtermism rather than justifiable only under longtermism

@NathanpmYoung Any examples? I could see something like ethics research falling under that description, since most ethical theories agree that poverty and extinction are bad, but they disagree on how to organize a future utopian society. But I haven't seen many EAs advocating for funding ethics research.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Longview Philanthropy?

@NicoDelon I don't know much about them, but it looks like a lot of their work goes into reducing existential risk, which seems pretty neartermist to me.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Their mission is quite literally aligned with longtermism.

โ€˜We focus on global challenges that could transform our future for many generations to come, including safely navigating emerging technologies and fostering a society with a more long-term outlook.โ€™

@NicoDelon My point is that this doesn't seem like much of a split. I'm a neartermist, and if longtermists are funding existential risk reduction research, great! Big fan! Why would a neartermist object to that?

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@IsaacKing Thatโ€™s one of MacAskillโ€™s argumentsโ€”that longtermism also benefits the near-term. That doesnโ€™t make it a near-termist. Maybe thereโ€™s not much of a split now but the question is whether theyโ€™ll be. I can conceive of it happening if, for instance, longtermists end up thinking we should prioritize the long term even at the expense of the near term.