For the record, my object-level prediction on this is ~20%.

I suggest defining this as "an AI will create alone[0] an app that achieves some scale[1]", since if the AI will only be able to create toy apps then this won't happen, and if an AI will be able to create serious apps then this will happen many times.

[0]: The AI will create alone:

• It will write 99%+ of the code

• Humans are allowed to ask for changes in natural language, especially in response to user/customer requests

• Humans are still allowed to do tasks that are not "building the app", such as deploying it or creating an account in stipe for the app to accept payments

[1]: The app will have some scale:

• Things that would count

  • 100k users

  • 10000 users paying $1 each

  • 1000 users paying $10 each

• Things that wouldn't count

  • 1 user paying $10,000 for a TODO app that everyone else thinks is garbage

  • An app that goes viral just because it was created by an AI even though it's garbage

What do you think

Does this mean it could make manifold markets app based on a prompt or single sketch?

@firstuserhere A simplified version of the current app, yes.

Just a reality check on how impossible this would be.

In order to design an app, 90% of your effort is reading api docs and communicating with humans. Ai cannot talk to managers and get requirements so it doesn't work anyway. But even basic tasks like word recognition have 10% failure. Ai cannot read a sentence let alone an api doc.