[Daffy](https://www.daffy.org/) is a donor-advised fund provider. It is venture-funded and (as of 2022) does not earn enough revenue to cover its expenses.
A donor-advised fund has no legal obligation to do what donors want with the money. If Daffy runs out of money, it is allowed to use customer funds to pay off its debts (or whatever else).
In the period from 2024-01-01 to 2033-12-31, what is the probability that a randomly-chosen dollar donated to Daffy is used for unintended purposes? "Intended purpose" means the money is used in a way that a donor to a DAF would expect: kept in a donor's account balance, donated as directed by the donor, or deducted as part of a pre-disclosed account fee.
In 2034, I will resolve the market to a probability based on the proportion of funds that were used for unintended purposes, which I will estimate using whatever reliable information is available.
(Edited to simplify resolution criteria.)
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Great question and something to keep in mind when using a smaller DAF provider. I am assuming closing shop and returning funds to users/transferring to a solvent partner DAF would be considered "intended" even if not requested.
I would hope they would close up shop before spending >=39% of client funds, so buying down, but I am pretty limited in my understanding here.
Some sources for data:
2021 Form 990 (latest on IRS site), more may become available at Tax Exempt Organization Search for EIN 863177440
The Daffy terms list some additional states that regulate them or have more recent reports
Colorado, search by EIN or registration 20213028533
Florida, search by EIN or registration CH66619
Georgia, didn't see any documents
Illinois, I couldn't find a registration
Kansas, I see a registration but not any data
Maryland, if you need to search again make sure there's a dash in the EIN
There's more, but I stopped
Management expense look low, and debt very low vs. assets. I'm not really sure how user-directed donations compare to other expenses, but seems pretty good.
@benmanns yes, if Daffy shuts down but users can still control the money, I would consider that "intended", even if it's not a great user experience.