Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2023?
3%
chance

L bought M$20 of YES20 days ago
I don't have the liquid cash to spend on this cuz I'm a bad trader, but I'm a fairly okay predictor on metaculus (ahh, the failings of prediction markets vs just prediction tracking, hiding that I am okay at figuring out what predictions to parrot but terrible at getting there first and prone to large bad trades.) but I think this is 90% probability by voting day 2024.
Rachel Shu bought M$10 of YES23 days ago
Hedge. 100% of my proceeds will go directly to LGBTQ charities if this market resolves yes.