Background:

François Bayrou’s government, formed in December 2024, faces significant challenges in maintaining stability in a highly fragmented French parliament. The previous government under Michel Barnier collapsed after just 90 days due to a no-confidence vote. Bayrou’s government lacks a parliamentary majority and must rely on support from other parties, such as the Socialists and Greens, to pass key legislation.

The opposition group France Unbowed (LFI) has already announced plans to submit a motion of no confidence against Bayrou’s government. The government faces immediate challenges, including passing the 2025 budget by mid-February.

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve YES if François Bayrou’s government faces a successful vote of no confidence (also known as a censure motion) before June 2025, where “successful” means the motion receives majority support in the National Assembly, forcing the government to resign.

The market will resolve NO if:

• No vote of no confidence is held before June 2025

• A vote of no confidence is held but fails to receive majority support

• Bayrou’s government resigns or is dissolved for reasons other than a successful no-confidence vote

Considerations:

• The French political system allows for multiple types of no-confidence votes. For this market, any successful motion of censure that forces the government to resign will count, regardless of the specific parliamentary mechanism used.

• If Bayrou resigns voluntarily or President Macron dissolves the government before any no-confidence vote, the market will resolve NO.

• Note: If Bayrou resigns as a direct consequence of a successful motion of censure, the market will still resolve YES.