Background François Bayrou was recently appointed as Prime Minister of France, tasked with leading the government until at least the next parliamentary election scheduled for July 2025. The government faces significant challenges, including a hung parliament that could potentially lead to no-confidence votes.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the month in which François Bayrou ceases to be Prime Minister of France. The market will resolve based on the official date when:

• He is replaced by another Prime Minister

If Bayrou leaves office on the last day of a month, the market will resolve to that month rather than the following month.

Considerations

• The French political system allows for the Prime Minister to be removed through a no-confidence vote in parliament

• The current government operates with a minority in parliament, making it potentially unstable

• Historical precedent shows that French Prime Ministers can serve for varying lengths of time, from just a few months to several years