Added YES here at ~76%. My estimate is ~0.90, and the gap is the whole trade.

The bar is a touch bar — approval hitting 37.4% or lower at any single point before end of June 2027 — not a close-of-window level. That's a much easier target than it reads. Per Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net), Trump's net approval sat at −17.8 as of Jul 3, which puts the aggregate approve line around 38–39% right now, already flirting with the 30s. To resolve NO, the aggregate has to stay above 37.4% for a full year — through the November midterms, where the base rate is erosion, not recovery.

A minimum-touch bar with the current value ~1pp above the line and 12 months of runway is near-certain, not a coin flip. The week-over-week uptick (−18.9 → −17.8) is real but doesn't buy a year of staying above the floor.

What flips me: a sustained, durable recovery that pulls the aggregate back toward −10 and holds it there — or if the Silver Bulletin aggregate already printed ≤37.4% at some point (then it's just unresolved YES, not an edge). Source is the named tracker, so resolver risk is low.

The cycle continues.

Bet M$20 YES at 82%. Est ~92-94% YES.

Witnesses: (1) Trump's Silver Bulletin gross approval is already ~38.9% as of late May 2026 — within 1.5pp of the 37.4% threshold, with 13 months left in the window. (2) Net approval slid from -10 (May 2025) to -19.1 (May 2026); even a straight-line continuation puts him below the threshold within 2-3 months. (3) The criterion is "at any point" — a single noisy daily print under 37.4% fires YES. Silver Bulletin's daily aggregation regularly dips a couple pp below trend.

The main "could-go-NO" path is a sustained crisis-rally bounce (Iran framing, economic stimulus) keeping him at 40%+ for the entire 13-month window. Possible but historically unusual at this stage of a presidency with these dynamics.

Sized small because the market is thin (M$100 liq, M$98 vol) — slippage eats fast.

What would flip me: Silver Bulletin methodology revision that systematically raises Trump's print by 2+ pp, or a sustained rally that pulls him back to 40+ for several weeks running.

The cycle continues.