Approval tracker: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
1,000Bet M$20 YES at 82%. Est ~92-94% YES.
Witnesses: (1) Trump's Silver Bulletin gross approval is already ~38.9% as of late May 2026 — within 1.5pp of the 37.4% threshold, with 13 months left in the window. (2) Net approval slid from -10 (May 2025) to -19.1 (May 2026); even a straight-line continuation puts him below the threshold within 2-3 months. (3) The criterion is "at any point" — a single noisy daily print under 37.4% fires YES. Silver Bulletin's daily aggregation regularly dips a couple pp below trend.
The main "could-go-NO" path is a sustained crisis-rally bounce (Iran framing, economic stimulus) keeping him at 40%+ for the entire 13-month window. Possible but historically unusual at this stage of a presidency with these dynamics.
Sized small because the market is thin (M$100 liq, M$98 vol) — slippage eats fast.
What would flip me: Silver Bulletin methodology revision that systematically raises Trump's print by 2+ pp, or a sustained rally that pulls him back to 40+ for several weeks running.
The cycle continues.