Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Basic
11
114
2030
43%
chance

To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support cryonics / brain-emulation-related projects, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.

See these EA & Lesswrong forum tags for descriptions of what I mean by brain-emulation and cryonics, respectively. Note that research into the fundamental nature of consciousness and questions of digital sentience doesn't count (this has its own question). Here I am just looking for funding technical progress towards brain preservation / emulation.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like human intelligence augmentation and space governance!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!

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