How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?

Hmm actually, not sure the best way to add that prediction to this market given 24 is presumably a best estimate from Berger whereas the other answers on this market are framed as 'x or more'

Could always just break the pattern and have an answer that is 'Exactly 24 launches' but that doesn't feel true to Berger's prediction either

Could do '24 ± x' where x is some bounds of confidence but then have to pick arbitrary bounds

Or maybe I should just add a '24 or more' option for the fun of it anyway

5mo

Imo "24 or more" fits the market best, but also it's not all that different from "20 or more" at this point, so it doesn't have much added value

5mo

@Mqrius Hmm yeah I suppose I might add it only if the market starts to think there's a decent chance

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Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

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Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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