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MANIFOLD
When will the first deliveries of the 2nd gen Tesla Roadster occur?
24
แน€1.3kแน€6.8k
2029
19%
Before 2029
58%
Before 2030
70%
Before 2033
81%
Before 2040
Resolved
NO
Before 2026
Resolved
NO
Before 2027
Resolved
NO
Before 2028

The deliveries must be to paying, non-employees

I may resolve answers NO early if sufficiently certain

Clarification update: any driveable car released by Tesla that has Roadster somewhere in its name will count

Related markets:

/Nat/will-there-be-an-event-unveiling-th

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bought แน€10 NO

Does it have to look anything like what they showed yesterday or can it be whatever Tesla car that is simply called "Roadster"? Or what if yesterday's car is actually produced under a different name?

@SimoneRomeo My guess would be that any high performance car would count as a '2nd gen roadster' but wait for creators answer.

What I want to ask is Musk said 2028 for 'enter production' actually, so can 'Before 2027' resolve? That seems sufficiently certain? What about 'before 2028'?

bought แน€500 NO

@SimoneRomeo so long as it's a driveable car released by Tesla and Roadster is in it's name somewhere I'll count it

@ChristopherRandles Honestly yeah I'll resolve both NO now - if I'm somehow wrong I will personally managram the YES holders 10x their profits lol

@Nat should normal users be able to purchase it, or can it be a limited-edition invite-only thing?

bought แน€10 YES

Elon: "Hoping to debut in April [of 2026]"

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/earnings/TSLA-Q4-2025-earnings_call-393464.html

(Note that transcript misattributes quote to Ashok)

@rogs "debut in April" [2026] was clearly for reveal/demo. accounts show it was only in design phase, Tooling up the production line would clearly take longer and Musk has now said 2028 for 'enter production'.

opened a แน€2,500 NO at 1.0% order

Can we get another option around 2032-2033 or so?

bought แน€10 NO

@EvanDaniel added 2033, plus a super distant 2040 for the fun of it

reposted

There's still free mana on the table here

reposted

Reposting because there is still some easy profit to be made here