When will the average person in America or any other country be able to buy a Tesla bot, just like they can buy a car? See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/JulianK/when-will-tesla-bots-be-commerciall)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Later than 2031, followed by 2028 and 2030 are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Jun 27, 2026).

When will Tesla bots be commercially available (2)?

MANIFOLD

When will Tesla bots be commercially available (2)?

Ṁ227Ṁ287

2032

Earlier than 2028

2028

2029

2030

2031

65%

Later than 2031

When will the average person in America or any other country be able to buy a Tesla bot, just like they can buy a car?

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When will Tesla bots be commercially available?

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24% chance

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

63% chance

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?

15% chance

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90% chance

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026?

10% chance

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

28% chance

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