Background

To bypass the heavily backlogged global supply chain for AI data center power, both SpaceX and Boom Supersonic are vertically integrating into the turbine market:

• SpaceX is constructing an in-house casting foundry in Bastrop, Texas. The facility is designed to manufacture single-crystal nickel-superalloy turbine blades and vanes, which Elon Musk claims can accelerate the timeline for bringing gas turbines online for xAI/SpaceXAI's data centers by up to 18 months. More info: https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/elon-musk-says-spacex-build-111019019.html

• Boom Supersonic unveiled its "Superpower" turbine in late 2025. Derived from the core of its Symphony supersonic jet engine, the 42-megawatt natural gas turbine is designed specifically to power off-grid AI data centers. Boom secured a launch order of 29 turbines from Crusoe Energy and is targeting late 2027 for its first deliveries. More info: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251209195489/en/Boom-Supersonic-to-Power-AI-Data-Centers-With-Superpower-Natural-Gas-Turbines-Adds-%24300-Million-in-New-Funding

  Resolution criteria

  • YES: SpaceX successfully deploys a power-generation gas turbine utilizing turbine blades and/or vanes cast in-house (such as from its Bastrop, Texas foundry) to actively provide power to an operational data center (such as xAI/SpaceXAI Colossus) before Boom Supersonic successfully deploys an in-house designed/manufactured gas turbine (such as its "Superpower" turbine) to power a data center.

  • NO: Boom Supersonic successfully deploys an in-house designed/manufactured gas turbine (such as its "Superpower" turbine) to power a data center before SpaceX successfully deploys a turbine utilizing its in-house manufactured blades/vanes.

  • Details & Edge Cases:

    • For SpaceX, the deployment of third-party turbines (e.g., off-the-shelf Solar Turbines or GE units) that do not incorporate SpaceX's in-house cast blades/vanes will not count toward resolution. The turbine must actively utilize components produced by SpaceX's proprietary manufacturing foundry.

    • For Boom Supersonic, the deployment must be an operational "Superpower" turbine (or similar in-house design) supplying power to an active data center facility (e.g., Crusoe's sites).

    • "Deployed" is defined as the turbine being installed, connected, and actively generating electricity to power servers at a data center facility.

    • If neither company has completed a qualifying deployment by December 31, 2030, this market will resolve 50/50.

    • Credible public statements from either company, regulatory filings, or reporting from reputable tech and industry news publications (such as The Information, TechCrunch, Data Center Dynamics, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify the resolution.