A team of researchers from the University of Toledo report that they were able to suppress the development of rheumatoid arthritis in rats by administering a vaccine containing the protein 14-3-3 zeta:
The researchers have apparently filed for a patent for this concept and intend to pursue approval for early clinical trials in humans. Will their findings be reproduced in human trials?
This will resolve YES if any clinical trial is performed to evaluate the efficacy of a vaccine for rheumatoid arthritis based on 14-3-3ζ before the end date, and the trial results show a statistically significant effect. Resolves NO otherwise.
It doesn't matter if the trial is conducted by the same research team mentioned here or not, as long as it tests the same protein for the same purpose. It also doesn't matter if the trial is done in the US or not, as long as the methodology used is generally seen as credible by scientific consensus. I will not be betting in this market.
1,000
3.00Statistical significance isn't the most useful endpoint to be judging success with for a phase 2 trial (on people with the disease, not just healthy safety-test subjects). Effect size is also important, and the clinical significance of the effect size (will the difference be noticeable to people), and the absence of serious side effects.