Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025?
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Ṁ390
2025
4%
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Resolves early in June 2025 if they haven't sent anything yet because the SpaceX website claims 6 months to reach Mars.

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Mars launch windows are every 26 months
Oct 2024 window has passed but not completely closed yet *
Next full window opens ~Dec 2026

These are minimum delta-V Hoymann transfer windows which take ~7-9 months travel time but it doesn't take a lot of extra delta-V to reduce journey time to ~6 months likely using a Hoymann type I orbit which goes less than 180 degrees around sun.

* There is a possible alternate around March 2025 that Escapade flying on New Glenn could take. This is a Hoymann type II orbit that goes more than 180 degrees around sun, I would have expected more than 6 month travel time however apparently the arrival at Mars is planned for September 2025 so it would be in time for a 2025 landing. Edit: Probably not - now seeing it is an 11 month journey from March 2025 which makes more sense and probably suggests arriving by end of Dec 2025 requires launching by about end of February 2025.

Once the March 2025 window closes, it should be ok to resolve this on the sort of reasoning that the creator appears to be using.

SpaceX has indicated first plans to send anything won't be until the Dec 2026 window opens. Starship appears extremely unlikely to be ready to be sent to Mars and land on Mars by the March 2025 window. Legs for landing starship and thrusters located high on the payload sectors are just a couple things we haven't seen being developed yet let alone testing refuelling which needs full orbit to be reached ....

So perhaps even already possible to safely resolve this?

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