To clarify, does "SpaceX branded" mean that a NASA mission launched on a Starship (or other SpaceX rocket) wouldn't count?

@Nat05b9 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/spacex-lands-people-on-mars-by-2030/ "A "SpaceX-branded" mission is defined to mean that the SpaceX-associated logos on the spacecraft involved (both the boosters and the Mars-bound craft) have a larger surface area than the logos of any other entity"

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-a-spacexbranded-mission-land-p-b644227ce070

Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?

54% chance.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-a-spacexbranded-mission-land-p-e91e105f991d

Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2040?

43% chance.