When will Dream Chaser go to space?
When will Dream Chaser go to space?
10
300Ṁ26692026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.9%
First half of 2024
1.6%
Second half of 2024
29%
2025
69%
Not by end of 2025
Dream Chaser is a spaceplane intended to deliver cargo to the ISS. As of market creation, its first mission to space is scheduled for April 2024, launching on Vulcan.
See this wikipedia page for more info.
Resolves based on when a Dream Chaser first goes above the Karman Line (100km altitude).
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This article alleges NET September and likely to slip into 2025. https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/vulcans-second-launch-likely-to-be-delayed-until-at-least-september/
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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