This market aims to estimate the overall probability of a catastrophic event for humanity in the next 50 years.

For the purposes of this question, "doom" is defined as either:

1. Human extinction: The complete or near-complete (>89.99%) elimination of the human species.

2. Irreversible civilizational collapse: A state where human civilization has degraded to a point from which recovery to current technological and seesocietal levels is no longer possible.

Potential causes of doom may include, but are not limited to:

• Artificial Intelligence risks

• Global nuclear war

• Catastrophic climate change

• Engineered pandemics

• Asteroid or comet impact

• Super-volcanic eruption

• Other unforeseen existential risks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the consensus of reputable existential risk research organizations as of August 29th 2074 aka 50 years from "poll start". If humanity experiences doom before the resolution date, the market will resolve immediately.

• YES (100%): Doom has occurred or is agreed to be certain.

• NO (0%): It is agreed that humanity has survived and civilization remains intact.

• Partial resolution: If a consensus probability is available from expert sources, the market will resolve to that probability.

Notes for Traders

• Consider the interplay and potential compounding effects of various existential risks.

• Factor in both known risks and the possibility of currently unforeseen threats.

• Take into account ongoing mitigation efforts and potential future developments in protective technologies.

• Be aware of your own biases, including optimism or pessimism about humanity's future.

This market is for educational and research purposes only. It is not intended to cause undue stress or anxiety. If you're feeling overwhelmed by these topics, please seek support or consider not participating.

This is part of the research for an upcoming project doomClock.ai