Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 500 times?
17
1kṀ9093resolved Jun 13
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently SpaceX had launched rockets in the Falcon 9 family a total of 232 times. The expectation is that when Starship is operational, Falcon 9 will be phased out in favor of Starship. Will they launch at least 500 times before retiring the Falcon 9?
This market includes early versions of Falcon 9 as well as current and potential future versions. It also includes Falcon Heavy, though each Heavy launch only counts once, not 3 times. This market does not count Falcon 1.
Failed launches count as long as they fail after liftoff.
/Mqrius/will-spacex-falcon-launch-at-least
/Mqrius/will-spacex-falcon-launch-at-least-3ac98b0cb008
/Mqrius/will-spacex-falcon-launch-at-least-fd67f96710f5
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ137 | |
| 2 | Ṁ84 | |
| 3 | Ṁ52 | |
| 4 | Ṁ35 | |
| 5 | Ṁ22 |
People are also trading
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 600 times?
99% chance
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?
96% chance
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times?
86% chance
When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?
79% chance
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
8% chance
By what year will SpaceX have a launch every day?
2045
How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?
302
Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040?
50% chance
People are also trading
Related questions
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 600 times?
99% chance
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?
96% chance
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times?
86% chance
When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?
79% chance
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
8% chance
By what year will SpaceX have a launch every day?
2045
How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?
302
Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040?
50% chance