When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times

Ṁ1kṀ2.6k

2031

Before Jan 1 2027

87%

Before Jan 1 2028

90%

Before Jan 1 2029

91%

Before Jan 1 2030

2030 or later

10%

Never

In April 2024, B1062 became the first falcon booster to reach 20 flights. The company says it is currently qualifying them to fly 40 times each. Coincidentally(?), if a booster flies 40 times, it will also break Discovery's record 39 flights, though the comparison of a shuttle orbiter and first stage of a more traditional rocket is difficult.

Market resolves after a successful flight to orbit. Landing is not necessary. Local time at launch site.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Before Jan 1 2027 7%
Before Jan 1 2028 86%
Big gap add quarterly dates between those or maybe before 1 feb 2027, 1 Mar, 1 April 2027 is better?

@ChristopherRandles I wanted to do this since dates likely converging on 2027 but I am unable to edit the market. I will make a new quarterly market around the end of this year if they don't manage to sneak it in at the end of December.

bought Ṁ50 NO

It is going to be close for 'before Jan 1 2027', but the flight leader would need to maintain and/or accelerate its pace in order to get to 4 flights before the end of the year.