Reports say spacex will be IPOed on June 12th. Will Elon become a trillionaire by mid June?
Resolution Criteria
A trillionaire is defined as an individual with a net worth of $1 trillion or more. This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's net worth reaches $1 trillion USD or higher at any point before June 16th, 2026. Resolution will be determined by tracking his net worth through major wealth indices including the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and Forbes Real Time Billionaires list (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/).
If one or both of these show he is a trillionaire, resolves yes.
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@Mochi it does appear that this may have been doctored image making the rounds on social media. Seems fairly certain he is going to hit it though
@ShaneBo I took the screenshots on Forbes official website and checked intermittently for hours so it’s definitely not doctored image. I think it’s likely a premature update they rolled out and rolled back (maybe changed their minds? Jacob the intern pushed it by accident?).
@Mochi Couldn't find any record of the mistake/error/rollback which I assumed would have gotten a lot of coverage, but didn't dig that deep. It also benefits me that this stays as it is haha, but I assume this will be a point of contention so probably good for you to be able to respond and clear it up.
@ShaneBo Not sure what response is needed from me here. The resolution criteria were clearly triggered: the value appeared on Forbes’ official website and remained there for hours, not minutes. At that point, the market condition had been satisfied according to the stated rules.
If we’re going to argue that published data from a named resolution source doesn’t count whenever that source later changes or removes it, then it becomes very unclear what would count. What if Forbes republishes the trillionaire figure tomorrow? What if they change it back and forth several times? Markets need an objective trigger, and that’s exactly what was stated in market description.
As far as I can tell, this wasn’t a doctored image, a typo, or a momentary glitch. It was publicly displayed on Forbes for a substantial period of time and observed independently by multiple people.
@Mochi Forbes currently has him at $782B at 5:30am GMT with a delta of -$10B since yesterday
Was there some kind of very short spike? Are we sure this was intentional by Forbes?
The market description is phrased in terms of his net worth in reality, with Forbes and Bloomberg as the supporting evidence. So if this was a mistake, or if Forbes immediately changed their mind, then a YES resolution seems premature.
If the question was phrased more like 'Forbes lists Musk as a trillionaire' then (assuming the screenshots in the comments are real) a YES resolution might make sense, but that's not really the case.
Forgive me if I'm missing something obvious!
@DanBorthwick The market wording is extremely explicit: “This market resolves YES if Elon Musk’s net worth reaches $1 trillion USD or higher at any point before June 16, 2026.” The description then specifically lists Forbes or Bloomberg as acceptable evidence. For roughly 10 hours, Forbes showed Musk as a trillionaire. By the market’s stated evidentiary standard, the condition was met.
Could Forbes have later changed its methodology or rolled back an algorithm update? Sure. But markets generally resolve based on the published criteria, not by retroactively second-guessing the source whenever it produces an inconvenient result.
If the argument is that Forbes briefly displayed an outright error, I’d want to see evidence of that. A trillion-dollar valuation that remained live for ~10 hours looks a lot more like a deliberate calculation or methodology change than a typo that slipped through for a few minutes.
And on the “net worth in reality” point: Private-company valuations are inherently subjective. Depending on how you value SpaceX, Musk may already be worth over $1T on paper. Forbes and Bloomberg are estimates, not ground truth. That’s exactly why the market description anchored resolution to those sources rather than asking traders to independently determine his “true” net worth.
@Mochi I'm not in any Elon trillionaire markets. However if Forbes' value spiked by 26% in a day (per screenshot) and then fell back again within 10 hours with no apparent change in, say, TSLA, I'd be sceptical that this is an algorithmic tweak rather than an outright error.
Likely rendered moot in a day or so via SPCX, but still.
(As an aside, did this resolve any high value polymarket bets?)
@Tomoffer I mean a change to how they algorithmically value SPCX is an algorithmic tweak. I can only find one Polymarket bet that is based on Bloomberg estimate Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
@Mochi ah sorry yeah just saw your other comment about accounting for spcx ipo value. I guess maybe they updated it but then changed their minds pretty quickly? Depends on your definition of "error". Anyway like I say I'm only an interested bystander, I'll leave you to it!
@Mochi Thanks for the quick reply. By the way, I'm not suggesting any kind of skulduggery, nor am I proposing a change in resolution. I'm not even a trader in this market!
It's not clear cut, and as you say a lot of e.g. stock price based markets would likely have been resolved in a similar way. But I stand by my fundamental point that no reasonable person would believe that Musk's net worth actually increased by >$200B, then fell again, in the course of several hours. Obviously at the time of resolution the reversion wasn't known, but the question was raised by traders prior to resolution and so holding off would have seemed reasonable.
Similarly, given that afaik there was no significant movement in the Bloomberg index, it seems like the resolution has been interpreted as 'there is any evidence indicating his net worth exceeds...', rather than 'the evidence as a whole indicates his net worth exceeds'. For example given the huge disparity, why choose Forbes over Bloomberg?
Anyway, this may well all be moot depending what happens tomorrow! I'll shut up and get back to work.
@Mochi Was there any news piece announcing he had become a trillionaire? I haven’t seen any which to me suggests this may have been an error.
@Mochi Forbes Real Time Billionaires List - The World's Richest People is this enough to resolve yes?
@Dssc I think they decided to use SpaceX ipo valuation since IPO is pretty much confirmed to happen this week. Prior to this they were using the 1.25T valuation from xAI merger.
@Mochi I don't think using the target valuation makes any sense? It's just a target, it doesn't represent what the actual valuation will be. There's also no news article/announcement from Forbes or anything, which seems unusual if they were to decide to suddenly announce Elon as the world's first trillionaire.
@Dssc they can use any valuation they want regardless if it makes any sense. But yea I agree this reveal was a bit “quiet” than anticipated
what happened here? How did @Mochi buy 1292 mana worth of YES shares when only raising the percentage by 2%? Was there any limit order? Shouldn't the trade log show that there was a limit order created?
