Resolves YES if @Mira s all-time profit graph on Manifold Markets is positive at any time on or before December 31, 2023. Otherwise resolves NO.
In the unlikely event it's so close it's uncertain whether it occurred or not (i.e., different APIs give different numbers, some of which are YES and some are NO), then it resolves 50%.
There are mechanisms to manipulate profit graphs (e.g., buying YES shares at 1% on a fake market up through 99% and closing a market). Rather than itemize every possible scenario, any specific market can be disputed. In case of a dispute, a poll will be created asking "Is X market intended to manipulate Mira's profit graph?". If the poll rules it is manipulative, Mira's profit on market X will be disgorged from the profit graph.
If the profit graph temporarily shows positive due to a bug, that doesn't count. It does count if Mira genuinely had that profit for a short time and then lost the money soon after.
Borrowed money from others doesn't directly influence the profit graph, so is not considered here. Only profits from markets do, and those are covered by the poll mechanism.
Profit is "all-time profit"(i.e. the number that is currently -M130,645) not profit limited to the year 2023.
Mar 27, 12:59pm: Will @Mira have a positive profit? (2023) → Will @Mira have a positive all-time profit? (2023)
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ325 | |
| 2 | Ṁ176 | |
| 3 | Ṁ114 | |
| 4 | Ṁ90 | |
| 5 | Ṁ40 |
Early-resolving to free up people's money. If there's a twist to WvM and this was incorrect, I'll pay @Wobbles the value of his NO shares.
@RobertCousineau I'm going to wait until it resolves so the profit is "real", but it's looking good!
Why do people (Such as in this post) refer to themselves in the 3rd person. @Chad has never done so, to the best of their knowledge. Are there multiple people behind such a said account?
I find your calibration very interesting because most dots, red or green, are below the y=x line
@Chad 1. It's a separation of "Mira the market creator" from "Mira the judge" from "Mira the target of the market". Theoretically anyone could duplicate my market and it would still make sense, and theoretically Manifold admins could resolve my market if I never do.
Someone that is keeping a clear separation between their different abstract roles, will often use third-party language when one role needs to reference another, even if all 3 roles happen to be fulfilled by the same person.
@Chad Any market title that talks about someone in the first person is going to be unclear in any context where the creator is not shown, such as /Mira/will-mira-have-a-positive-profit-20. It's best to include all relevant information in the title rather than making people search around to find out who it's talking about.
@IsaacKing The one who weighs the evidence and decides on a resolution. This can be done by the market creator; by site admins or trustworthy users; done automatically via smart contract, poll, or oracle; but something must do it.
