Manifold has already leaked everyone's comments and partial bet history in /Mira/will-manifold-leak-everyones-privat . Now that @JamesGrugett has fixed the issue, this market predicts whether it will happen again.

Resolves YES if by the end of the year any bet or comment is leaked. NO otherwise.

Even a single comment or bet will be sufficient to resolve this YES.

A comment is either the comment_id of a Manifold comment object, or the owner and text content of a Manifold comment object.

A bet is either the bet_id of a Manifold bet object, or the timestamp to 2 seconds precision, owner, mana amount, shares to 2 significant digits of precision. (so 123.478 would count, but not "approximately 120 shares")

A leak is someone obtaining access to information that they are not authorized to see. So an insider of the private group giving information away is not a leak(because no outsider had access), but a Manifold bug that lets anyone see it would be. Manifold staff are considered authorized to see anything, so their existing ability to snoop on everyone's private markets does not count.

Either someone with access to the private market, me reproducing the issue, or developer confirmation on Discord or here that there was an issue will count for confirmation. (If somebody colludes to lie about a leak, I may ask a developer to confirm and reject the report.)