How many traders will this market get?
96
1.8k
4.2k
Jun 1
0.3%
Other
0.2%
1597
0.2%
987
0.2%
610
0.3%
377
1.6%
233
14%
144
83%
89
0.1%
55
0%
34
0%
21
0%
13
0%
8
0%
5
0%
3
0%
2
0%
1
0%
1
0%
0

For each breakpoint above 8, each time the market reaches a new Fibonacci number of traders its close time will be extended by 1 month(starting from December). I will add new Fibonacci numbers to the options as necessary.

Resolves to the linear interpolation between nearest bounding answers, or 100% to an option if it is exact. If the market has exactly 1 trader, resolves 50% to both.

Example: There are 100 traders. Then this market resolves to (100 - 89) / (144 - 89) = 20% 144 and 80% 89.

Current breakpoint: 89 traders -> closes in May

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ25 144 YES

A good opportunity for profit by betting on 144

Doesn't this need to be extended by a month now? @Mira_

89

reposted

How does the algo work around here? Does "old" stuff disappear off the radar for new people?

reposted

2 more traders to get to the next breakpoint

sold Ṁ2 144 YES

@JamesBakerc884 Now only 1 more.

I really like this market

@Mira A reminder that we were supposed to get a one-month deadline extension to the end of April when this market hit 55 traders.

sold Ṁ5 of 55 YES

Now that we've hit 55 traders, time for another deadline extension.

bought Ṁ30 of 233 YES

Ah damn clever market. Exactly what I need in Q1 😅🙈

reposted

This market will blow up in March as the ROI tends to infinity%. Get your bets in now before the real answer gets bid up!

@Mira I sold my position because understanding this market is beyond my intelligence :(

@Soli I actually tried to understand it but I can't

reposted

this deserves more than 34 traders

bought Ṁ4 of 34 YES

Hmm. We've stabilized for several days at 34 now.

@SEE let's change it then :P

Under what condition does other win?

@tq5 If I forget to enough add new numbers and the market reaches its closing date, then Other could qualify as an appropriate number in the sequence. So it could be a linear interpolation between the largest number and Other, or resolve 100% to Other, depending on if I'm missing 1 or 2+ entries.

We've reached 21 traders, so I've extended it by 1 month to February.

Since Other was trading at the highest %, I also added 2 new numbers to the sequence.

bought Ṁ7 of 89 YES

@Mira we have reached 34 traders, the market should be extended to end of March.

@dp9000 Done!

This is crazy !! Love it..

This market has reached 13 traders, so I have extended it by 1 month to January.