How many traders will this market get?
87
1.6K
4.2K
May 1
0.4%
Other
0.1%
1597
0.2%
987
0.3%
610
0.9%
377
3%
233
28%
144
67%
89
0.2%
55
0.1%
34
0%
21
0%
13
0%
8
0%
5
0%
3
0%
2
0%
1
0%
1
0%
0

For each breakpoint above 8, each time the market reaches a new Fibonacci number of traders its close time will be extended by 1 month(starting from December). I will add new Fibonacci numbers to the options as necessary.

Resolves to the linear interpolation between nearest bounding answers, or 100% to an option if it is exact. If the market has exactly 1 trader, resolves 50% to both.

Example: There are 100 traders. Then this market resolves to (100 - 89) / (144 - 89) = 20% 144 and 80% 89.

Current breakpoint: 55 traders -> closes in April

Get Ṁ200 play money

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I really like this market

@Mira A reminder that we were supposed to get a one-month deadline extension to the end of April when this market hit 55 traders.

sold Ṁ5 of 55 YES

bought Ṁ30 of 233 YES

Ah damn clever market. Exactly what I need in Q1 😅🙈

reposted

This market will blow up in March as the ROI tends to infinity%. Get your bets in now before the real answer gets bid up!

@Mira I sold my position because understanding this market is beyond my intelligence :(

@Soli I actually tried to understand it but I can't

reposted

this deserves more than 34 traders

bought Ṁ4 of 34 YES

Hmm. We've stabilized for several days at 34 now.

@SEE let's change it then :P

Under what condition does other win?

@tq5 If I forget to enough add new numbers and the market reaches its closing date, then Other could qualify as an appropriate number in the sequence. So it could be a linear interpolation between the largest number and Other, or resolve 100% to Other, depending on if I'm missing 1 or 2+ entries.

We've reached 21 traders, so I've extended it by 1 month to February.

Since Other was trading at the highest %, I also added 2 new numbers to the sequence.

bought Ṁ7 of 89 YES

@Mira we have reached 34 traders, the market should be extended to end of March.

@dp9000 Done!

This is crazy !! Love it..

This market has reached 13 traders, so I have extended it by 1 month to January.