How many traders will this market get?
Basic
295
309k
Aug 1
4%
Other
·
7mo
3%
1597
·
7mo
12%
987
·
7mo
18%
610
·
7mo
52%
377
·
7mo
10%
233
·
7mo
0.6%
144
·
7mo
0.1%
89
·
7mo
0.1%
55
·
7mo
0.1%
34
·
7mo
0%
21
·
7mo
0%
13
·
7mo
0%
8
·
7mo
0%
5
·
7mo
0%
3
·
7mo
0%
2
·
7mo
0%
1
·
7mo
0%
1
·
7mo
0%
0
·
7mo

For each breakpoint above 8, each time the market reaches a new Fibonacci number of traders its close time will be extended by 1 month(starting from end of December). I will add new Fibonacci numbers to the options as necessary.

Resolves to the linear interpolation between nearest bounding answers, or 100% to an option if it is exact. If the market has exactly 1 trader, resolves 50% to both.

Example: There are 100 traders. Then this market resolves to (100 - 89) / (144 - 89) = 20% 144 and 80% 89.

Current breakpoint: 233 traders -> closes at end of July

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Trying some passive shenanigans:

The last comment was 8 days ago, at 264 traders.

Now, we are at 276 traders.

Market closes after 30 days.

if we assume the same rate:

that would be 45 more traders, , = 321 total, which would resolve to

61% 377

39% 233

That is also pretty far from another extension - maybe not enough people on the website yet to reach the higher numbers. Stock in higher values is pretty worthless.

276 to 286 in 5 days is 2 per day. 25 days adds 50 so that reaches 336.

As close date approaches might get more interest which might increase the rate so that might get it closer to 377 target which may generates more interest .... so might get to 377 and cause a further month extension.

I would agree that not many markets reach 1597 traders or even 987 but it isn't clear how long you may have to wait for a small return.

I’m surprised 233 isn’t higher given the linear interpolation resolution. If this market stays constant at 264 traders, it will resolve 78.5% 233 and 21.5% 377.

hit 234 on 3 June per comment below. At 265 now so 31 added in 23 days. At that rate could reach 36/23*31 +265 =313

That is nearer 377 than 233 but still a decent increase from current 8% for 233. Trouble is this question may get more attention as it approaches its current Aug 1 close date and attract more new traders as that date approaches. Perhaps particularly so if 233 has a higher %age.

So it is not too difficult to see 233 becoming worthless.

I really like the idea of this market and it inspired me to start a similar one, but using bins instead of interpolation:

@Mira_ I believe we are owed another month, to the end of July, and the description still says 144 -> closes in June.

@deagol I've extended it. But if the market does close, it would send me an email and I'd reopen it. So don't worry too much if the close date is earlier; you'll still get the extra month.

@Mira_ Thanks. I was wondering if some casual traders might not have been aware of the real (current) close being almost 2 months away, but I guess that's on them.

why doesnt it show unique traders? doesnt that only limit who knows to who writes a bot to sort count the 1.5K Trades via API? (I swear it used to show it at top...?!)

@Bair my guardian angel <3

144
bought Ṁ787 144 NO

Currently at 194 traders, so only 39 until it crosses the 233 threshold and "144" becomes worthless. Seems hard to imagine it won't get 39 more traders in a month given the strong incentive.

bought Ṁ500 144 NO

@MugaSofer Yep esp with 96 new traders in last 40 hours even if it is 39 needed that is less than half of new traders in last 40 hours

Slowing a bit 28 since message above 25 hours ago. Now up to 222 so only 11 needed to reach 233. Seems likely to acquire those so seems highly likely there will be 2 more months to collect new traders.

bought Ṁ200 144 NO

pls vote

reposted

Free mana for betting no on 144, if everyone who follows me and a few other people bet on this. We are at 164 traders now, just need a few more to reach 233!

bought Ṁ17 144 NO

@nikki betted 🫴

Free mana for betting no on 144, if everyone who follows me and a few other people bet on this. We are at 164 traders now, just need a few more to reach 233!

sold Ṁ8 610 YES

You underestimate the memelords. This market got 30 new traders today.

@nikki only 30? I get 72 new in 32 hours

omg they just removed unique trader numbers how annoying

sold Ṁ53 144 YES

@Tumbles Why did they do this? lol

@benshindel it's in the ... Menu

but no one has any idea why they removed it from the default market view so far lol

fwiw I would bet at over 35% odds that they bring it back

Comment hidden

@shankypanky higher than "over 35%"? there's nothing higher than that range! 😎 but you're probably right, chrisjbillington is arguing for it in feedback after all

@Bayesian ah I shouldn't multitask because then I misread and then miscomment lol

I'd say 24hr and it's back 👤

sold Ṁ1 Other YES

@shankypanky already back