How many traders will this market get?

Experimental•Unranked•Unsubsidized

1.6K

Ṁ57K

Ṁ4.2K

May 1

ALL

0.3%

Other

0.1%

1597

0.1%

987

0.2%

610

0.5%

377

233

144

89%

0.3%

0.1%

For each breakpoint above 8, each time the market reaches a new Fibonacci number of traders its close time will be extended by 1 month(starting from December). I will add new Fibonacci numbers to the options as necessary.

Resolves to the linear interpolation between nearest bounding answers, or 100% to an option if it is exact. If the market has exactly 1 trader, resolves 50% to both.

Example: There are 100 traders. Then this market resolves to (100 - 89) / (144 - 89) = 20% 144 and 80% 89.

Current breakpoint: 55 traders -> closes in April

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

Will this market get over 200 traders by the end of 2024?

39% chance

Will this market get more than 1000 different traders?

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reposted

2 more traders to get to the next breakpoint

sold Ṁ2 144 YES

@JamesBakerc884 Now only 1 more.

I really like this market

@Mira A reminder that we were supposed to get a one-month deadline extension to the end of April when this market hit 55 traders.

sold Ṁ5 of 55 YES

Now that we've hit 55 traders, time for another deadline extension.

bought Ṁ30 of 233 YES

Ah damn clever market. Exactly what I need in Q1 😅🙈

reposted

This market will blow up in March as the ROI tends to infinity%. Get your bets in now before the real answer gets bid up!

@Mira I sold my position because understanding this market is beyond my intelligence :(

@Soli I actually tried to understand it but I can't

reposted

this deserves more than 34 traders

bought Ṁ4 of 34 YES

Hmm. We've stabilized for several days at 34 now.

@SEE let's change it then :P

Under what condition does other win?

@tq5 If I forget to enough add new numbers and the market reaches its closing date, then Other could qualify as an appropriate number in the sequence. So it could be a linear interpolation between the largest number and Other, or resolve 100% to Other, depending on if I'm missing 1 or 2+ entries.