Resolves YES if any of Anthropic, DeepMind, OpenAI, xAI, or Meta announce any policy change or action that could be considered even a partial win for those striking (e.g, increased funding for alignment research, or additional standards they will put into place that would plausibly slow down race dynamics.), unless there is strong evidence or claims by the lab that this action is unrelated to the strikes. It does not need to satisfy the strikers or to make them stop.
Resolves NO once all those striking ingest calories, with a week buffer in case an AI lab was working on an announcement. New strikers can count towards this market if they go on strike while other strikers are still ongoing.
Update 2025-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Verification of hunger strikes
Only publicly verifiable hunger strikes will count.
If a claimed striker is not visibly getting thinner, not making public appearances, or there is credible reason to believe they are lying, they will not be counted as "striking" for this market.
Update 2025-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Non-lab impacts can also resolve YES if they are major and clearly attributable to the hunger strikes.
A really big AI protest march formed because of the strikes would likely count.
Minor awareness effects (e.g., small spikes in PauseAI signups) will not count.
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@DaniellqdC6 I think it'd need to be something pretty impressive - a small spike of signups for PauseAI or something wouldn't budge the needle, but if a really big AI protest march formed because of this I think that'd probably count
@SteveAcomb If they weren't visibly getting thinner, or making public appearances, or there is credible reason to believe that they are lying, it wouldn't count