@MilfordHammerschmidt What source will you be using for civilian death? Gaza Health Ministry?

The recent Lancet study estimates over 186k dead.

Given that the capacity of local health ministry to accurately record deaths has been destroyed, it’s reasonable to rely on estimates from reputable journals for resolution.

In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

The local health ministry is interested in maximizing global outrage. And there’s been times when they’ve clearly prioritized outrage over accuracy. I doubt they’d miss the chance to report 150,000 deaths.

The local health ministry attributes direct killings, not indirect deaths.

No one serious is arguing that the ~30k reported reflects the excess mortality resulting from the war.

@OP No true Scotsman likes beer. I’d be surprised if the GMH figure underreports excess mortality. Got a source?

I can’t find any report from the GHM on excess mortality. The only figure I can find from them is for ‘fatalities’, being those directly killed.

Do you have a source from them for excess mortality?

It's a estimate future indirect deaths. This just isn't how casualties from wars are counted.

@OP That was a letter to the editor, not a study. In any case, it's been endlessly debunked.

@ElmerFudd The fact that after more than three months the number is still stuck at 43k contradicts your idea. Really stupid idea that one year of war does not increase mortality, by the way.

@Emanuele98 That raises a good question.

@M.H. If we don’t have up to date information at time of resolution, are you willing to extend the market until adequate information is available?

Given the matter’s before the ICJ, I expect we’ll get detailed analysis of what’s occurred.

@MilfordHammerschmidt last message didn’t properly tag you.

Are you counting deaths from conditions in Gaza? (Starvation, sickness, etc) What level of evidence are you looking for?

@OP Def willing to extend resolution if necessary

@OP The OP says "Via either deliberate expulsion or killings", so I will only count either direct casualties or forced emigration.

@MilfordHammerschmidt The op also says that civilian deaths from ongoing conflict count. That doesn’t pull in starvation and disease?

If Egypt somehow magically changes their mind about accepting refugees then presumably large numbers of Gazans would want to go there, but that's not an action taken by Israel. Not sure this question makes sense.

Does having your apartment block destroyed resulting in you leaving gaza count as "ethnic cleansing"?

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel-gaza-hamas-evacuate-un-ground-operation

Better market here:

https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-the-palestinian-population-of

Will the Palestinian population of the Gaza Stripe drop below 2,000,000 before 2025?

50% chance. Currently at 2.3 million, according to Wikipedia.