MANIFOLD
Will KIA-led forces have captured Katha by June 30, 2027?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ20
2027
61%
chance

This market resolves YES if KIA-led forces have captured Katha, northern Sagaing Region by June 30, 2027.

YES if by June 30, 2027:

  • All major junta installations in Katha captured

  • No organized junta battalion resistance

  • KIA-led forces control Irrawaddy river access at Katha

  • Resistance administering civilian affairs

NO if:

  • Katha remains contested or under junta control on June 30, 2027

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. The Irrawaddy (irrawaddy.com)

  2. Myanmar Now (myanmar-now.org)

  3. DVB English (english.dvb.no)

  4. BNI Online (bnionline.net)

  5. KIA official statements

Market context
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