MANIFOLD
Will KIA-led forces have captured Katha by December 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ15
Dec 31
56%
chance

This market resolves YES if KIA-led forces have captured Katha, northern Sagaing Region by December 31, 2026.

YES if by December 31, 2026:

  • All major junta installations in Katha captured

  • No organized junta battalion resistance

  • KIA-led forces control Irrawaddy river access at Katha

  • Resistance administering civilian affairs

NO if:

  • Katha remains contested or under junta control on December 31, 2026

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. The Irrawaddy (irrawaddy.com)

  2. Myanmar Now (myanmar-now.org)

  3. DVB English (english.dvb.no)

  4. BNI Online (bnionline.net)

  5. KIA official statements

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will KIA-led forces have captured Katha by June 30, 2027?
61% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Katha by June 30, 2026?
+5% 1d38% chance
US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026?
-4% 1d15% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Katha by September 30, 2026?
50% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2028?
+5% 1d20% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2030?
+3% 1d38% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Bhamo by September 30, 2026?
20% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Bhamo by December 31, 2027?
50% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Bhamo by December 31, 2026?
30% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2027?
5% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy