Resolution notes

• Resolve using 2027 global production of contained vanadium, not V₂O₅.

• Primary source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries/Yearbook (Vanadium) for 2027.

• If USGS is unavailable or clearly out of line, take the median of at least two other reputable industry sources (e.g., SFA (Oxford), Wood Mackenzie, Argus, Project Blue).

• If the best-available figure is ≥ 140,000 t V, resolve YES; otherwise NO.

• If no 2027 number is available by 31 Dec 2029, resolve N/A.

Why this matters

This is the headline test of whether the market actually grows out of the ~2024 ~119 kt V level toward the high-demand trajectory, or whether the “persistent surplus / flat” narrative wins.

Resolution criteria

Global vanadium production in 2024 was 109,000 tonnes of contained vanadium, with the market testing whether production reaches at least 140,000 tonnes by 2027.

Resolve YES if 2027 global production of contained vanadium (mine + co-product) is ≥ 140,000 tonnes. Resolve NO if < 140,000 tonnes.

Primary source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries/Yearbook (Vanadium) for 2027, available at https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/vanadium-statistics-and-information

Fallback sources: If USGS data is unavailable or clearly inconsistent, use the median of at least two reputable industry sources (e.g., SFA Oxford, Wood Mackenzie, Argus, Project Blue).

Resolution deadline: If no 2027 figure is available by December 31, 2029, resolve N/A.

Background

China remains the world's top vanadium-producing country by far, with output of 70,000 metric tons in 2024, followed by Russia at 21,000 tonnes. Vanadium sees relatively limited primary production from ore and instead relies on co-production from steel slag and uranium mining, with a portion also coming from recycling. Approximately 90 percent of vanadium consumption continues to be driven by the steel industry, where it is used to strengthen alloys. However, the growing adoption of vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) for grid-scale energy storage is creating new avenues for demand, particularly as countries pursue decarbonization goals and renewable energy integration.

Considerations

CRU Group estimates a global supply deficit in 2025 due to change in rebar standards and rise in vanadium battery demand, causing vanadium prices to rise. As more supply comes online in 2026 and 2027, by 2027 vanadium prices will come down when compared to 2025 prices, but crucially remain higher than the pricing in the last 12 months. To meet growing demand, global vanadium supply will need to increase by 6.9% annually between 2022-2030. The 140,000-tonne threshold represents a 28% increase from 2024 levels, testing whether supply-side expansion and VRFB demand growth materialize as projected.