Once both 2026 slag and crude steel data are out:
From USGS 2026 slag chapter, compute
SLAG_2026 = iron_mid_2026 + steel_mid_2026.From worldsteel, get
STEEL_2026= world crude steel 2026.Intensity =
SLAG_2026 / STEEL_2026.YES if intensity ≥ 0.31 t/t, otherwise NO.
I'll search for relevant information about iron and steel slag intensity to provide context for this market.#### Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the global iron and steel slag intensity in 2026 is ≥ 0.31 tonnes per tonne of crude steel, and NO otherwise.
Resolution process:
Obtain 2026 slag data from the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 slag chapter and compute: SLAG_2026 = iron_mid_2026 + steel_mid_2026
Obtain 2026 world crude steel production from worldsteel: STEEL_2026
Calculate intensity: SLAG_2026 / STEEL_2026
Resolve YES if intensity ≥ 0.31 t/t, otherwise NO
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, worldsteel
Background
Iron slag production from blast furnaces is estimated at 25% to 30% of crude pig iron production, and steel furnace slag production is estimated at 10% to 15% of raw steel production. In 2024, world iron slag production was estimated between 330-390 million tons, and steel slag production between 190-290 million tons. Total world crude steel production was 1,882.6 Mt in 2024. This implies a 2024 slag intensity of approximately 0.28-0.36 t/t, placing the 0.31 threshold near recent historical levels.
Considerations
The threshold of 0.31 t/t represents a relatively tight band given the uncertainty ranges in USGS slag estimates (which span 60 million tons for iron slag and 100 million tons for steel slag). Small variations in either slag production or crude steel output could shift the intensity across the resolution threshold. Additionally, ongoing decarbonization efforts may alter steelmaking routes—electric arc furnaces produce less slag per ton of steel than blast furnace-converter routes—potentially affecting future intensity ratios.
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