Will U.S. production of battery-grade lithium exceed 10% of global supply by the end of 2030?
10
100Ṁ1902030
49%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if, by Feb 1, 2031, credible sources (e.g., USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, IEA reports, or BloombergNEF data) confirm that U.S.-sourced battery-grade lithium production (including refined output from domestic mines, recycling, and new processing facilities) is estimated to account for more than 10% of total global battery-grade lithium supply for 2030 or any previous year. "Battery-grade" refers to lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) suitable for EV and energy storage batteries. If data is unavailable or ambiguous, resolve NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Tesla's market share of EVs sold in the US be above 50% in 2025?
16% chance
Will the USA have >=1TWh/yr of installed lithium ion battery production capacity by 2030?
81% chance
Lithium Hydroxide above $8 USD/kg at EOY2025?
66% chance
Will electric vehicles make up more than 25% of new US car sales by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will the US be a top 3 lithium producer in 2033?
64% chance
US imports more lithium for consumption in 2026 than 2024?
75% chance
Will Lithium stop being the most popular rechargeable battery chemistry before 2100?
70% chance
When will Lithium stop being the #1 by USD market share rechargeable battery chemistry?
Will over 20% of the United States' energy be produced from renewable sources by the end of 2030?
54% chance
Will over 15% of the United States' energy be produced from renewable sources by the end of 2030?
85% chance