Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if South Africa's total vanadium production exceeds 10,000 tonnes in calendar year 2027. Resolution will be based on official production data from the U.S. Geological Survey's Mineral Commodity Summary (published annually) or equivalent authoritative sources tracking South African vanadium output. Production figures should be reported in metric tonnes of contained vanadium metal or V2O5 equivalent.

Background

South Africa's vanadium output declined to 8,000 metric tons in 2024, down from historical levels above 8,500 MT annually since 2019. South Africa's vanadium production consists of primary production from Bushveld Minerals and Glencore.

The country has significant new capacity coming online. The Steelpoortdrift project is scheduled to begin production in the second half of 2026/first half of 2027, with Phase 1 designed to produce about 12,000 t/y of V2O5 flake. Additionally, Bushveld Minerals is expanding from current capacity of 5,000 tons per year to 8,000 tons per year.

Considerations

The 10,000-tonne threshold is achievable but depends on timing. Steelpoortdrift's Phase 1 alone targets 12,000 t/y, but production ramp-up timelines in mining projects frequently slip. The market resolves based on actual 2027 calendar-year output, so even partial-year production from Steelpoortdrift would contribute. Existing producers (Bushveld, Glencore) currently supply ~8,000 MT annually, meaning the threshold requires either full Steelpoortdrift production or significant expansion from incumbents.