Resolution
Use the first USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries “Iron and Steel Slag” that includes 2026 world data:

• Take the midpoint of the world iron slag range (from BF pig iron) and the midpoint of the world steel slag range (from steel furnaces).

• Let TOTAL_2026 = iron_mid_2026 + steel_mid_2026.

• YES if TOTAL_2026 > 595 Mt, otherwise NO

  Resolution criteria

  This market resolves YES if the first USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries report that includes 2026 world data shows combined global iron and steel slag output exceeding 595 million tonnes. Specifically:

  1. Take the midpoint of the world iron slag production range (from blast furnace pig iron)

  2. Take the midpoint of the world steel slag production range (from steel furnaces)

  3. Sum these midpoints: if the total exceeds 595 Mt, the market resolves YES; otherwise NO

  Resolution source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries (available at https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/iron-and-steel-slag-statistics-and-information)

  Background

  Iron and steel slags are formed during the production of crude iron and steel, then cooled and processed, and are primarily used in the construction industry. Iron slag production from blast furnaces is estimated at 25-30% of crude pig iron production, and steel furnace slag at 10-15% of raw steel production. In 2023, world iron slag production was estimated between 330-390 million tonnes, and steel slag between 190-290 million tonnes.

  Considerations

  The 595 Mt threshold represents a modest increase from 2023 levels (combined midpoint: ~510 Mt). Global slag output is tightly coupled to iron and steel production rates. The availability of iron and steel slag is tied closely to the rates of pig iron and raw steel production and the cost consideration of recovering slag for use in low-value downstream applications. USGS reports typically provide production ranges rather than single figures, requiring use of midpoints as specified in the resolution criteria.