Resolution

• Use the first worldsteel “World Steel in Figures” / Steel Data Viewer that lists 2026 world crude steel.

• Let WORLD_2026 be the global total.

• YES if WORLD_2026 ≥ 1,880 Mt, otherwise NO.

  Resolution criteria

  Use the worldsteel Steel Data Viewer, which provides crude steel production data updated monthly and features an interactive map showing global steel production. The market resolves YES if 2026 world crude steel production is at least 1,880 million tonnes, otherwise NO. worldsteel publishes World Steel in Figures annually (usually May/June) and the Steel Statistical Yearbook (usually December), which will provide the official 2026 figure.

  Background

  Global crude steel production was forecast at 1.846 billion tonnes for 2025, down from 1.88 billion tonnes forecasted in December 2024. The longer-term forecast for global crude steel output growth turns positive in 2026, though global steel demand is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2026 to approximately 1.77 billion tonnes. Substantial increases in steelmaking capacity of up to 6.7% (165 million metric tonnes) are planned worldwide from 2025 to 2027, which could support higher production levels if demand materializes.

  Considerations

  Regional demand trends diverge significantly: while ASEAN and MENA show stronger growth, demand is declining in China, where subsidies are 10 times higher than in OECD countries. Trade policy uncertainty and tariff impacts remain key variables affecting production decisions and capacity utilization rates.