Resolution notes
Need two numbers for year 2030:
Total global vanadium consumption (all uses, contained V).
Vanadium consumption in VRFBs (contained V).
Use high‑quality industry analyses (e.g., SFA, Wood Mackenzie, Argus, CRU).
If at least two independent reputable sources estimate that VRFBs represent ≥ 20% of total vanadium consumption in 2030, resolve YES; if they consistently place it below 20%, resolve NO.
If estimates vary wildly or are unavailable by 31 Dec 2032, resolve N/A.
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if at least two independent reputable industry sources (e.g., SFA Institute, Wood Mackenzie, Argus, CRU Group, Guidehouse Insights) estimate that vanadium consumption in VRFBs represents ≥20% of total global vanadium consumption (measured in contained vanadium) in 2030. It resolves NO if these sources consistently place VRFB consumption below 20% of total vanadium consumption in 2030. If estimates vary widely or are unavailable by 31 December 2032, the market resolves N/A.
Background
Approximately 90 percent of vanadium consumption continues to be driven by the steel industry, where vanadium strengthens alloys. However, by 2033, vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are projected to account for 17% of global vanadium use — a x6 increase from just 3% in 2021. Guidehouse Insights forecasts that the growth of VRFBs will be such that by 2031, between 127,500 and 173,800 tonnes of new vanadium demand will be created, equivalent to double the demand for the metal today. Global production has remained relatively consistent in the 2020s at around 100,000 metric tons per year, with China producing 70,000 metric tons in 2024.
Considerations
Reaching 20% VRFB penetration by 2030 would represent a significant acceleration beyond current forecasts. Most analyst projections suggest VRFBs will reach 15-17% of global vanadium consumption by 2033, not 2030. The 20% threshold by 2030 would require VRFB deployment to grow faster than currently anticipated, potentially driven by unexpected policy mandates, cost breakthroughs, or supply constraints forcing substitution away from steel applications. Additionally, vanadium supply concentration—with 99% of global supply concentrated in high risk regions: China (70%) and Russia (21%) and South Africa (8%)—could create supply bottlenecks that either accelerate or constrain VRFB adoption.
1,000